We mentioned yesterday that the MSW forecast was showing a possible track east into the Atlantic for Debby and interestingly the NHC's guidance this morning suggests this is now the most likely route, with the storm remaining tropical as it heads up the US East Coast.
"Assuming that the cyclone will emerge over the Atlantic some re-intensification is expected. Say the National Hurricane Centre. "The official intensity forecast in the 3 to 5 day time range is close to the model consensus but could be conservative given the potential influence of the Gulf Stream."
"Surface synoptic data and radar imagery suggest that Debby has turned toward the east over the past few hours. The storm is apparently beginning to respond to a mid-level trough over the Eastern United States. Some of the dynamical model guidance in particular the typically best-performing GFS and ECMWF global models are now taking Debby significantly faster to the east and northeast over the forecast period. It is worth noting that the track forecasts from these two models have now come into rather close agreement.
"The UK Met Office model is by the far the fastest and shows the cyclone near the Canadian maritimes in four days or less. Whereas the latter scenario seems unrealistic the overall change in the guidance supports a faster track across Florida and into the Atlantic than the previous NHC predictions. The new official forecast track lies between the previous NHC track and the ECMWF and GFS solutions.
© Luke Roman